A Mehanical Trading System by Tom Joseph
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Tom Joseph on Trading Elliott Type One Trades
Although I use several trading methods, one of my favorites is an Elliott Type One Buy / Sell, which in Elliott Wave terms, is entering a trade after the completion of a Wave 4 retracement.
I consider the Type One trade the most easily identifiable pattern in an Elliott Wave sequence. And, over the years, I have developed studies and indicators that allow you to make this trade with a high degree of accuracy.
When using Elliott Wave analysis, one can receive numerous signals. Some of them only become clear after the fact. This might be okay if you’re writing a newsletter, but, to make a successful trade, you need patterns you can identify ahead of time with a considerable amount of accuracy. From my experience trading since 1979, the Type One pattern can be identified with a high degree of accuracy prior to its actual occurrence.
After a long Wave 3 rally, profit-taking sets in, and the market enters a retracement phase. While profit-taking continues, others, who are convinced that the trend is still up, continue to enter the market. Once the profit-taking pressure is over, the new participants entering the market will finally push the market to new highs in a Wave 5.
One of the simplest tools we developed for Advanced GET is the Elliott Oscillator. We discovered that this oscillator pulls back to the zero baseline at least 94 percent of the time during this profit-taking retracement. This is a great tool because it lets you stand aside until the profit-taking is over. When the Elliott Oscillator pulls back to zero, it provides a highly accurate area where you can predict that profit-taking is actually over, and the trend is ready to resume.
In addition to this, we created the Profit-Taking Index (PTI), which is designed to be used with the Elliott Oscillator and measures the intensity of the profit-taking. The PTI calculates the magnitude of the profit-taking compared to the previous Wave 3 rally. Historically, if the PTI remains above 35, it indicates a normal profit-taking, which allows the market to resume its trend to a new high. A PTI of less than 35 indicates too much profit-taking and diminishes the odds that the Wave 5 rally will set in.
We also created the Wave 4 Channels, which show up as three lines on the chart (blue, green and red). During a Wave 4 retracement, we would like to see the prices hold above the blue or green channels. Based on statistical observations, this provides 70 percent favorable odds for a quick move to new highs.
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